Poissonian bursts in e-mail correspondence

Recent work has shown that the distribution of inter-event times for e-mail communication exhibits a heavy tail which is statistically consistent with a cascading Poisson process. In this work we extend the analysis to higher-order statistics, using the Fano and Allan factors to quantify the extent to which the empirical data depart from the known correlations of Poissonian statistics. The analysis shows that the higher-order statistics from the empirical data is indistinguishable from that of randomly reordered time series, thus demonstrating that e-mail correspondence is no more bursty or correlated than a Poisson process. Furthermore synthetic data sets generated by a cascading Poisson process replicate the burstiness and correlations observed in the empirical data. Finally, a simple rescaling analysis using the best-estimate rate of activity, confirms that the empirically observed correlations arise from a non-homogeneus Poisson process

Micro-bias and macro-performance

We use agent-based modeling to investigate the effect of conservatism and partisanship on the efficiency with which large populations solve the density classification task--a paradigmatic problem for information aggregation and consensus building. We find that conservative agents enhance the populations' ability to efficiently solve the density classification task despite large levels of noise in the system. In contrast, we find that the presence of even a small fraction of partisans holding the minority position will result in deadlock or a consensus on an incorrect answer. Our results provide a possible explanation for the emergence of conservatism and suggest that even low levels of partisanship can lead to significant social costs.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Statistical mixing and aggregation in Feller diffusion

We consider Feller mean-reverting square-root diffusion, which has been applied to model a wide variety of processes with linearly state-dependent diffusion, such as stochastic volatility and interest rates in finance, and neuronal and populations dynamics in natural sciences. We focus on the statistical mixing (or superstatistical) process in which the parameter related to the mean value can fluctuate - a plausible mechanism for the emergence of heavy-tailed distributions. We obtain analytical results for the associated probability density function (both stationary and time dependent), its correlation structure and aggregation properties. Our results are applied to explain the statistics of stock traded volume at different aggregation scales.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures. To be published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experimen

The aggregation of cytochrome C may be linked to its flexibility during refolding

Large-scale expression of biopharmaceutical proteins in cellular hosts results in production of large insoluble mass aggregates. In order to generate functional product, these aggregates require further processing through refolding with denaturant, a process in itself that can result in aggregation. Using a model folding protein, cytochrome C, we show how an increase in final denaturant concentration decreases the propensity of the protein to aggregate during refolding. Using polarised fluorescence anisotropy, we show how reduced levels of aggregation can be achieved by increasing the period of time the protein remains flexible during refolding, mediated through dilution ratios. This highlights the relationship between the flexibility of a protein and its propensity to aggregate. We attribute this behaviour to the preferential urea-residue interaction, over self-association between molecules

Timing interactions in social simulations: The voter model

The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use Poisson processes to update the state of the agents, which gives rise to very homogeneous activity patterns with a well defined characteristic interevent time. As a paradigmatic opinion model we investigate the voter model and review the standard update rules and propose two new update rules which are able to account for heterogeneous activity patterns. For the new update rules each node gets updated with a probability that depends on the time since the last event of the node, where an event can be an update attempt (exogenous update) or a change of state (endogenous update). We find that both update rules can give rise to power law interevent time distributions, although the endogenous one more robustly. Apart from that for the exogenous update rule and the standard update rules the voter model does not reach consensus in the infinite size limit, while for the endogenous update there exist a coarsening process that drives the system toward consensus configurations.Comment: Book Chapter, 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 table

Circadian pattern and burstiness in mobile phone communication

The temporal communication patterns of human individuals are known to be inhomogeneous or bursty, which is reflected as the heavy tail behavior in the inter-event time distribution. As the cause of such bursty behavior two main mechanisms have been suggested: a) Inhomogeneities due to the circadian and weekly activity patterns and b) inhomogeneities rooted in human task execution behavior. Here we investigate the roles of these mechanisms by developing and then applying systematic de-seasoning methods to remove the circadian and weekly patterns from the time-series of mobile phone communication events of individuals. We find that the heavy tails in the inter-event time distributions remain robustly with respect to this procedure, which clearly indicates that the human task execution based mechanism is a possible cause for the remaining burstiness in temporal mobile phone communication patterns.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figure

A Poissonian explanation for heavy-tails in e-mail communication

Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence provides an attractive proxy for studying human activity. Recently, it was reported that the probability density for the inter-event time $\tau$ between consecutively sent e-mails decays asymptotically as $\tau^{-\alpha}$, with $\alpha \approx 1$. The slower than exponential decay of the inter-event time distribution suggests that deliberate human activity is inherently non-Poissonian. Here, we demonstrate that the approximate power-law scaling of the inter-event time distribution is a consequence of circadian and weekly cycles of human activity. We propose a cascading non-homogeneous Poisson process which explicitly integrates these periodic patterns in activity with an individual's tendency to continue participating in an activity. Using standard statistical techniques, we show that our model is consistent with the empirical data. Our findings may also provide insight into the origins of heavy-tailed distributions in other complex systems.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Bursty egocentric network evolution in Skype

In this study we analyze the dynamics of the contact list evolution of millions of users of the Skype communication network. We find that egocentric networks evolve heterogeneously in time as events of edge additions and deletions of individuals are grouped in long bursty clusters, which are separated by long inactive periods. We classify users by their link creation dynamics and show that bursty peaks of contact additions are likely to appear shortly after user account creation. We also study possible relations between bursty contact addition activity and other user-initiated actions like free and paid service adoption events. We show that bursts of contact additions are associated with increases in activity and adoption - an observation that can inform the design of targeted marketing tactics.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures. Social Network Analysis and Mining (2013

Early risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour: an Australian longitudinal study

Objective: This investigation utilizes data from an Australian longitudinal study to identify early risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour. Method: Analyses are based on data from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy, an on-going longitudinal investigation of women’s and children’s health and development involving over 8000 participants. Five types of risk factors (child characteristics, perinatal factors, maternal/familial characteristics, maternal pre- and post-natal substance use and parenting practices) were included in analyses and were based on maternal reports, child assessments and medical records. Adolescent antisocial behaviour was measured when children were 14 years old, using the delinquency subscale of the Child Behaviour Checklist. Results: Based on a series of logistic regression models, significant risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour included children’s prior problem behaviour (i.e. aggression and attention/restlessness problems at age 5 years) and marital instability, which doubled or tripled the odds of antisocial behaviour. Perinatal factors, maternal substance use, and parenting practices were relatively poor predictors of antisocial behaviour. Conclusions: Few studies have assessed early predictors of antisocial behaviour in Australia and the current results can be used to inform prevention programs that target risk factors likely to lead to problem outcomes for Australian youth